After Myanmar ’s devastating 7.7 magnitude earthquake that killed over 2,000 people, global attention is now shifting toward another alarming warning—this time from Japan. The country has predicted a potential megaquake that could wipe out nearly 300,000 lives and cause economic losses worth $1.81 trillion. However, experts caution that India might be staring at an even greater risk, particularly in the Himalayan region, where a massive, long-overdue quake is just waiting to erupt.
Japan’s Chilling Megaquake Forecast
According to a recent report by Japan’s Cabinet Office, the country faces an 80% chance of a magnitude 9.0 megaquake along the Nankai Trough, located off its southwestern Pacific coast. If this catastrophic event were to occur—especially during the winter or at night—the consequences could be unimaginable:
- Over 1.23 million people may need evacuation
- Hundreds of buildings may collapse
- Tsunami waves could decimate entire coastal towns
- An estimated 300,000 people could lose their lives
In fact, Japan had already issued a rare megaquake advisory in 2023 following a magnitude-7.1 quake near the same tectonic zone. Clearly, the threat is real—and growing.
India: A Ticking Time Bomb in the Himalayas
While Japan is renowned for its earthquake preparedness, India is also at serious risk, particularly in the Himalayan belt. Experts have long warned that the region is overdue for what they call the “Great Himalayan Earthquake.”
Renowned American geophysicist Roger Bilham told TOI in 2020:
“Two or more regions of the Himalayas must soon rupture in a great earthquake. It is not a matter of ‘possibly.’ They must occur.”
This is due to India’s ongoing collision with the Tibetan plateau, where tectonic plates continue to grind against each other. When the built-up pressure is suddenly released, the resulting quake could be devastating.
Cities like Delhi, Dehradun, and Chandigarh lie in the danger zone. With their dense populations and fragile infrastructure, the loss of life and property could be staggering.
Scientific Backing: “It Could Happen in Our Lifetime”
A 2020 study published in Seismological Research Letters warned that the entire Himalayan arc is poised to produce a series of large-scale earthquakes. Researcher Steven G. Wesnousky told PTI:
“It would not be a surprise if the next great earthquake occurred in our lifetimes.”
Similarly, Indian seismologist Supriyo Mitra has echoed that sentiment, noting that while we can’t pinpoint when such a quake will strike, the fault lines are ready.
Also Read : India Sends 15 Tonnes of Relief Material to Earthquake-Hit Myanmar
Population Density: A Force Multiplier for Disaster
The danger is not just geological—it’s demographic. A 2001 study in Science highlighted how rapidly growing populations make earthquakes deadlier. For example:
- In 1819, the Kutch quake caused ~2,000 deaths.
- By 2001, a similar Bhuj earthquake killed nearly 30,000, due to a tenfold population increase.
If the 1905 Kangra earthquake occurred today, the estimated death toll could cross 200,000. A major quake in the Ganges plain megacities would be even worse.
Is India Prepared? The Warning Signs Are Loud and Clear
Although Indian disaster management agencies are aware of these risks, scientists like Vineet Kumar Gahalaut have pointed out that regions like Kumaon-Garhwal haven’t witnessed a major quake in over 500 years—yet the seismic pressure keeps building.
The harsh truth? We simply don’t know when it will happen—tomorrow, ten years from now, or a century later. But as Japan’s sobering forecast shows, waiting without action is not an option.
Also Read : Myanmar-Thailand Earthquake: 3 Dead, 81 Trapped as 30-Storey Building Collapses in Bangkok
Final Thoughts: A Wake-Up Call for India
Japan’s megaquake alert is more than a domestic concern—it’s a global warning. For India, the implications are especially urgent. With millions living in high-risk zones and urban sprawl growing by the day, earthquake preparedness is no longer a choice—it’s a necessity.
As history has shown, the ground beneath our feet can change everything in an instant. The time to prepare is now.
